Every year before the season starts I like to look at the statistics from the previous three seasons to see if there are any data points that have been overlooked.
At the top of my draft I like to avoid players with a big injury history. I know if McCaffrey stays healthy for the entire season he can almost single handedly win you a championship, I just think he is a big injury risk and I don’t want to gamble that much.
I looked at the top 25 RBs with the most total yards (rushing and receiving) since 2019 and then ordered them by games played. I then looked at RBs with an ADP of 36 or lower, which means they are drafted in the first 3 rounds of a 12 team league. Now lets see what pops out as it pertains to Durability.
| Player | Games Played | Total Yards | ADP |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 48 | 4383 | 26.3 |
| Aaron Jones | 45 | 4226 | 15.6 |
| David Montgomery | 45 | 3735 | 27.8 |
| Nick Chubb | 42 | 4422 | 13.4 |
| Austin Ekeler | 42 | 4041 | 4.2 |
| Leonard Fournette | 42 | 3540 | 24.8 |
| Alvin Kamara | 42 | 4458 | 18 |
| Dalvin Cook | 41 | 4955 | 7.7 |
| Derrick Henry | 39 | 4978 | 3.6 |
| James Conner | 38 | 2778 | 33.5 |
| Joe Mixon | 38 | 3509 | 12.6 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 32 | 3639 | 1.2 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 26 | 3554 | 3.6 |
First thing that jumped out to me was it is obvious why Taylor is the consensus #1 pick on many boards. He has only played two seasons and still put up a ton of yards without missing time. The second thing that jumped out at me was how fragile McCaffrey is. The other thing this underscored to me was I feel comfortable with my thought that I will let someone else draft Derrick Henry this season. He has had a ton of mileage on his body and I just feel he is unlikely to last an entire season as the bell cow in Tennessee. Since 2019 Henry leads the league in rushing attempts with 900, which is nearly 100 more than second which has 811 (Dalvin Cook).
1st Round
Looking at the numbers I only have a handful of RBs I would draft in the first round. I would draft Taylor, Ekeler, Cook and Mixon based on this information. I would also draft Najee Harris in the first round, but he was a rookie last season so wasn’t on this list. Other than those 5 RBs I am inclined to look at another position in the first round.
2nd Round
There are four backs with ADPs in the 2nd round and I would be fine drafting any of them. Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, Fournette and Alvin Kamara all have second round ADPs. Having said that, I favor Jones and Chubb out of this list. Jones could be a steal in the second round if you are playing in a PPR league. He has 1220 yards, 148 receptions and 11 TDs since 2019. The only other RB not on this list that I would consider in the 2nd round would be Javonte Williams.
3rd Round
There are three RBs with a 3rd round ADP; Elliott, Montgomery and Conner. I would be fine with Elliott as my RB1 if I had two stud WRs or a stud WR and Kelce entering the 3rd round. The other two I would rather carry as a RB2, with Conner having a higher upside in my opinion.
These will be the RBs I am favoring in the first three rounds. If I don’t draft one of these RBs at a favorable spot I will be fine drafting a WR in the first three rounds. I would consider Kelce in the second depending on what is happening in the draft. The only other TEs I would consider in the first three rounds are Pitts and Andrews. But realistically I think I will likely finish the third round without a TE on my roster in most scenarios.