The third year receiver rule is a thought that it takes approximately three years for a WR to reach their full potential in the NFL. There are of course WRs that break out sooner than their third year or take longer than three years to break out. With this in mind I wanted to cover the third year receivers who I think are set to break out this season.
Deebo Samuel: The former South Carolina Gamecock put up 1400 yards on 77 receptions and notched 6 TDs last season. This is quite a feat considering he had rookie QB, Trey Lance, and Jimmy Garoppolo throwing to him. It’s not hard to envision him finishing the season as a top 5 WR. He has all the tools to make a massive leap this season, especially if the QBs throwing to him show some improvement.
A.J. Brown: Brown saw a slight dip in his season totals last year, but he missed several games due to injury. In his 13 games last season he recorded 63 receptions, 870 yards and 5 TDs. In the off season the Eagles made a splash by trading for Brown and signing him to a 4 year, $100 million dollar deal. With the capital they gave up to acquire Brown it is obvious the Eagles are planning to make Brown a cornerstone of this offense. Brown will be playing with the best QB he has had in his young NFL career. Jalen Hurts will be playing behind arguably the league’s best offensive line, which should give him plenty of time to get Brown the ball. I expect Brown to have career highs this season.
Terry McLaurin: The Commanders got a steal when they drafted McLaurin out of Ohio State in the 3rd round of the 2019 draft. He has had horrendous QBs throwing to him and he still manages to put up numbers. Last year he had 77 receptions, 1050 yards and 5 TDs. He sees an upgrade at QB this year, with Carson Wentz throwing him balls. I expect McLaurin to see a slight bump in his production this season from last.
DK Metcalf: Metcalf is a hard player to handicap with his massive drop in QB play from last year. I would like this former MIssissippi Rebel’s prospect this year far more if he still has Russell Wilson tossing him the ball. It is hard to handicap how the change to Geno Smith and Drew Lock will affect him. Last year he hauled in 75 receptions, 967 yards and an eye-popping 12 TDs. I can not see Metcalf sniffing that production with Smith and Lock under center, especially that TD production.
Marquise ‘Hollywood’ Brown: Brown was acquired in a draft day trade by the Cardinals back in April, reuniting him with his former college QB, Kyler Murray. I really like Brown’s potential in this offense. Hopkins will start the season serving a 6 game suspension and I could see Brown having his role in this offense cemented by the time Hopkins makes his way back onto the field. Many people pointed to the offseason relationship between Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford for their success. From the stories I hearing out of Arizona I could see Brown and Murray forging a similar bond this season.
Hunter Renfrow: Hunter is a player that doesn’t get much press and has a tendency to fly under the radar. What would you say if you learned that last year, in his second season, he hauled in 103 receptions, 1038 yards and 9 TDs. Pretty impressive for someone with an ADP of the 5th round. I could see him adding to those totals this season as he has one more season under his belt in this system with Carr getting him the ball and opposing D’s will be covering Adams with their best CB.