I wanted to take an early look at trends we are seeing for the average draft position (ADP) compared with how I am projecting the players to perform.
Overvalued:
My definition of an overvalued player is someone who is being drafted higher than I expect them to perform.
DeAndre Hopkins: It was not too long ago that Hopkins was a top 3 WR. Skill positions in the NFL is a cruel reminder that the drop can be quick and startling. Right now Hopkins is being drafted around the 40th pick and with Hopkins having a 6 game suspension, I would not spend a 4th round pick on a player that will miss the first 6 games.
Robert Woods: I don’t have much faith any of the WRs in Tennessee are going to be amazing this year. But Woods is being drafted right around the 75th pick and I have him closer to the 100th player. He is coming off the board prior to Jerry Jeudy. I have trouble imagining a scenario where Woods out produces Jeudy if they both stay healthy.
Undervalued:
My definition of an undervalued player is someone who is being drafted lower than I expect them to perform.
Michael Pittman Jr.: I really like the potential of Pittman this season with the veteran Matt Ryan throwing passes to him. Last season with Wentz he finished in the top 20 in most scoring formats and I expect him to eclipse that this season with a more reliable QB. He is being drafted almost a full round later than I have him ranked. I have him around 36 overall and he is going at 45 on average.
DJ Moore: I will admit, I might have DJ Moore ranked a little higher than most. I have him ranked as the 15th WR and the 33rd player on my board. He is averaging the 24th WR to come off the board and the 55th selection overall. I think that is great value for WR that had nearly 100 receptions last year and 1150 yards. I think Mayfield is an upgrade at QB, so if he stays healthy, I see no reason he will not exceed those totals this season.