I wanted to take an early look at trends we are seeing for the average draft position (ADP) compared with how I am projecting the players to perform.
Overvalued:
My definition of an overvalued player is someone who is being drafted higher than I expect them to perform.
Aaron Rodgers: I know Aaron Rodgers is in contention year after year for the offensive MVP. This isn’t a knock on his skills. I am concerned about his ability to put up numbers with the loss of his favorite weapon, Adams. Going into the season his top three WRs are projected to be Lazard, Cobb and the Rookie, Watson. He is being drafted as the 7th highest rated QB and I just don’t see it this year with that group of WRs and a below average pass catching TE. He is being drafted right around Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts and I would feel much more comfortable with both of them as my starting QB than Rodgers at this point.
Josh Allen: Currently Allen is being drafted almost a full round earlier on average than the next QB. He has an average draft position of mid second round, but I am projecting his production to be the equivalent of QBs that can be taken later. Don’t get me wrong, I go back and forth with Allen as rated 1st or second on my QB list. I just think if you can wait one round and lock up a stud WR in the middle of the 2nd round that is a smarter play. I think Burrow has the chance to put up numbers that are pretty close to Allen and he is going late 4th or early 5th in most drafts.
Undervalued:
My definition of an undervalued player is someone who is being drafted lower than I expect them to perform.
Jalen Hurts: Currently Hurts is being drafted in the 6th round and is the 8th QB to come off the board. With that offensive line and his ability to make things happen both through the air and on the ground, I have him projected right around 5th on my list. With the addition of A.J. Brown at WR, Hurts will have one heck of a WR corps this year. He developed a very good relationship with his underrated TE, Goedert, which should continue to grow this season.
Dak Prescott: Dak is currently averaging the 10th QB to be drafted, coming off the board in the 7th round. That is a tremendous value for a QB of his potential. I have him projected as my 7th QB and I expect him to produce pretty close to Lamar Jackson who is going almost three rounds sooner than Prescott.