I wanted to take an early look at trends we are seeing for the average draft position (ADP) compared with how I am projecting the players to perform.
Defenses are extremely hard to predict. I am going to lay out discrepancies in where they are being drafted compared to where I have them ranked.
Overvalued:
My definition of an overvalued player is someone who is being drafted higher than I expect them to perform.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bucs are being drafted as the 2nd D/ST, but I have them ranked as the 10th D/ST. I might be a little pessimistic about my ranking, but I do not see them finishing as a top three D/ST.
San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers are averaging the 5th D/ST drafted. They could produce at that level, but I have them ranked closer to the 10th-12th ranked D/ST.
Undervalued:
My definition of an undervalued player is someone who is being drafted lower than I expect them to perform.
New England Patriots: The Patriots finished the season last year as a top 3 fantasy D/ST. This season they are being drafted with an ADP of the 10th D/ST off the board. I am projecting them to be a top 5 D/ST this season.
Miami Dolphins: I have Miami ranked as the 7-10th ranked D/ST and they are being drafted as the 15th D/ST on average. With Hill returning kickoffs I would expect them to outperform this ADP.