Every year there are QBs who exceed expectations and outperform their draft location. If you are a Fantasy Manager who likes to wait to draft their QB you will want to pay attention to this article.
Rounds 6-8: If you are planning to target a QB in rounds 6-8 here are some of the QBs who you should target.
Jalen Hurts: Hurts finished the season last year as a top 10 QB. He is a dual threat QB who threw for 3100 yards, 16 TDs and 9 INTs. He added 784 yards and 10 TDs to his throwing total. That rushing TD total matches some RB1’s, so to get that from your QB is awesome. I think he will likely improve on those totals from last year and will end up ranked somewhere around 5-7.
Dak Prescott: Prescott was top 7 QB last year. He had eye popping numbers and production last year for where he is being drafted this season. He is being drafted in the late seventh round and I think he is likely to outperform where he is being drafted again this year. Last year he threw for 4450 yards, 37 TDs and 10 INTs. 37 TDs! He isn’t much of a dual threat, since he only added one rushing TD to his total. I think he is a lock for 30+ TDs and he has never thrown over 13 INTs in a season.
Matthew Stafford: Stafford was a top 5 QB last season. He ended the season with 4886 yards, 41 TDs and 17 INTs. With spending most of his career in Detroit, his yearly TD totals have not been particularly impressive. He has only thrown for over 30 TDs three times since 2009. I think he is a lock for 30+ TDs playing in this LA Rams offense. He has thrown for massive yards nearly every season. He has thrown for over 4000 yards in nine seasons since 2009. He has an ADP of early 7th round, which I think is low when I think he will throw for over 4000 YDs and over 30 TDs.
Russell Wilson: Russell Wilson had a down year last season, which could be tied to him missing 4 games. He ended up being ranked around 15th as a result. In his down year he threw for 3100 yards, 25 TDs and 6 INTs. To that throwing total he added 2 rushing TDs. His TD total last year was the first time he has thrown for less than 30 TDs since 2016. He is moving to the Broncos this season, which will be the first time he is playing for a team other than the Seahawks. This will be a new offense for the first time in his career. He has a better OL and better skill positions than he has for several years in Seattle. Prior to last year he was a lock to be a top 5 QB and I see no reason why he will not return to those standards again. He is coming off the board as a late 7th round pick, which is amazing value for a QB that has the potential to be a top 5.
Rounds 9-11: These are the rounds where you are looking to grab your backup QB or a QB that you can use, should your starter miss some games.
Tom Brady: Brady puts up numbers that historically place him towards the top of the QB totals and the last several years he has been exceeding where he is drafted. Last year he was a top 3 QB and he is being drafted on average in the middle of the 9th round this season. The biggest question you need to ask yourself is how the loss of his head coach will impact those numbers. I think he can put up numbers that will place him in the top 10 for sure and is a QB you can target late if you want to load up on RBs and WRs. He threw for 5316 YDs, 43 TDs and 12 INTs last season.
Derek Carr: Carr has an ADP in the middle of the 10th round. He threw for 4800 YDs, 23TDs and 14 INTs. Those numbers are not eye opening by any means, but he has been given a massive gift in the off season with the acquisition of Davante Adams. The thoughts of pairing Adams with Hunter Renfrow should bring a smile to any Raiders fan. Carr is a QB to target as a backup who I think can exceed expectations.
Kirk Cousins: Kirk Cousins is a guy that consistently scores in the top 10, but is being drafted in the middle of the 11th round. Last year he threw for 4200 YDs, 33 TDs and 7 INTs. He has the benefit of throwing to arguably the best WR in the league, Justin Jefferson. If you look a step further he is throwing to Jefferson and Adam Thielen, which most QBs would love to have that opportunity. He is a high upside QB that you could target late and he will likely exceed where he is drafted.
Matt Ryan: Matt Ryan is someone who you can target late as a backup and might play like a starter. He threw for almost 4000 YDs, 20TDs and 12 INTs last season. He is being drafted at the tail end of the 12th round. I would be concerned if he was my starter heading into the season, but I would be very comfortable with him as my backup.